SUPARCO’s ‘Hazards Monitoring’ group has been studying Arabian Sea cyclones with satellite data / imageries since 1989. In this presentation, cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea, its development and possibility of predicting its course will be discussed. Statistical analysis of 60-years (since 1945) Arabian Sea cyclone data, including those traveling northward towards Pakistan has been worked out. Case study of the Thatta cyclone of May 1999 will be presented. The recurving phenomena and other characteristics for determining cyclone danger for Pakistan will be discussed. Coastal zones of Pakistan vulnerable to cyclone damages and mitigation measures that can be taken up will be presented. Finally, present and future developments in monitoring cyclones will be discussed. |
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